Estée Lauder had a big 3Q earnings beat, but its 2H outlook overwhelmed investors, Raymond James analyst Olivia Tong says in a research note. The beauty brands conglomerate shift in marketing expenses to 4Q from 3Q muted the impact of the beat on the FY results, leading to a 13% stock drop on Wednesday, erasing its year-to-date gains. “The hill Estée Lauder must climb to restore investor confidence just got higher given flat U.S. sales and a slower than expected ramp in China,” the analyst says. Tong sees a number of positive factors over the next 12 months, including a higher midpoint of the FY24 EPS outlook and better U.S. distribution. Shares rise 4.7%.