$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ stock is mired in a terrible losing streak, and there is no shortage of suspects to blame for the decline.
So Barron’s gathered a police lineup and asked people to identify the culprit. We also asked market technicians what’s next for the stock.
Coming into Wednesday trading, Tesla stock dropped for five consecutive trading days, losing about 16% in the process. Shares were down about 23% since the Jan. 20 presidential inauguration and about 32% from a record closing high of almost $480 in mid-December.
Tesla stock was down 0.5% in after-hours trading at $326.75, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were both falling 0.1%.
Why the drop? Investors might blame Elon Musk’s role in the newly created Department of Government Efficiency or his unsolicited $97 billion bid to control OpenAI. It could be the competitive threat from China’s BYD or just market randomness.
Barron’s put up a poll on X listing those four options. With thousands of votes in, DOGE and OpenAI were the winners. Market randomness finished third, and BYD’s self-driving technology came in last.
With DOGE, investors are worried that Musk is either too distracted to run Tesla effectively or he is damaging the brand. Don’t forget that Democrats are far more likely to buy an EV than Republicans.
“The Tesla brand is broken now,” said Gerber Kawasaki CEO Ross Gerber. “People only buy the cars as they are the best EVs, and people still want to be green.”
OpenAI also represents a distraction risk. Future Fund Active ETF co-founder Gary Black doesn’t buy that argument, though. Investors are used to Musk doing a lot. What investors don’t like about OpenAI and Musk is the potential for him to sell billions of Tesla stock if he wins. Large stock sales depress any share’s price. No one wants to buy in front of a big sale.
Black isn’t so sure that investors should dismiss the BYD news. Earlier in the week, the Chinese rival said it was putting driver assistance technology on all its cars, regardless of price. Its technology isn’t yet as advanced as Tesla’s Full Self-Driving, which Tesla hopes to use as the basis for a self-driving robotaxi fleet. But it’s a sign to Black that many companies will have self-driving car technology and that investors shouldn’t be so eager to assume all self-driving benefits accrue to Tesla.
Investors are optimistic about self-driving cars. Entering Wednesday, Tesla shares were still up about 38% since the company’s Oct. 10 Robotaxi event.
There are other suspects, too. Tariffs have weighed on investor sentiment. Ford Motor and General Motors shares have both been down over the past five days, too.
Earnings are another potential culprit. Tesla’s fourth-quarter numbers fell short of expectations, and first-quarter earnings estimates have been cut from about 75 cents to 55 cents over the past couple of weeks. That’s a drop of about 25%.
Analysts took down first-quarter delivery numbers, fearing car buyers will wait to purchase the updated version of the Model Y or wait for the new, lower-priced model due later this year. Falling earnings estimates are never positive for a stock.
Whatever the reason, investors want to know where things are going. CappThesis founder and market technician Frank Cappelleri and Fairlead Strategies analyst Will Tamplin both see some support for Tesla stock at around $315 a share. They aren’t making a fundamental call on Tesla stock. They are observing trading patterns to work out when investors might step in and buy.
Tesla stock needs to hold that level, or $270 — the level around the election could come into play, they said.
As for what could turn things around? The new model arriving, the self-driving robotaxi service starting, Musk abandoning his OpenAI purchase, or things quieting down in Washington could help.
Whatever happens, investors should remember that Tesla stock is exceptionally volatile, and it rarely does what they expect.