CFRA Maintains Hold Opinion On Cat Shares

Following CAT’s Q1 earnings release, we trim back our growth assumptions for 2025 and now assume sales of ~$62 billion vs. our previous estimate of $64 billion. We see margins following revenues lower, and now project operating margins slipping to 18% vs. being roughly flat for the full-year. Our 12-month target price has been adjusted to $350 from $390, valuing shares at 17.1x our 2025 EPS outlook, which is in line with CAT’s long-term historical multiple average. End market deceleration has been broad-based, with macro headwinds swiftly contributing to a pullback in customer spending on large machinery and equipment. Given the cyclical nature of CAT’s operations, we see challenges persisting under trade disputes. However, looking beyond a likely challenged 2025, we believe that stabilization and modest recovery from a lower base in 2026 is achievable. Despite the dampened demand environment, shares are trading 20% below their peak hit in early 2025, influencing our Hold view.

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