The Trader: The Stock Market Overreacts. Don’t Lose Your Head.

/ / Financials

By Avi Salzman The bond market is in charge right now — and that’s bad news for stocks. The major stock indexes fell sharply on Friday after the monthly jobs report came in hotter than expected and sent bond yields soaring. Investors fear that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high — or even raise them — to stave off inflation. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note briefly rose above 5%, its highest level since November 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 697 points, or 1.6%, on Friday to finish the week off 1.9%. The S&P 500 index also closed down 1.9% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.3%. The move wiped out all of the market’s 2025 gains, and then some. Predictions are turning ominous. “Today’s unemployment report likely sounds the death knell for this easing cycle from the Fed,” wrote Peter Graf, chief […]

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Up & Down Wall Street: Lessons From a Century of Stock Returns: Stay Invested, Let the Winners Run

/ / Financials

By Randall W. Forsyth Just a few stocks drive all the returns of the equity market while the vast majority matter little. Indeed, most of them just detract from gains produced by the leaders. This isn’t about the Magnificent Seven behemoth tech stocks, which have accounted for the lion’s share of equity returns over the past two years. A study of U.S. stocks’ returns over nearly a century finds that the median stock actually lost money since 1926 — even while a dollar invested across all stocks on average grew to $229.40 by the end of 2023. Of course, the concentration of outsize returns in just a few stocks is nothing new and, in fact, appears to be the norm over the modern history of equity markets that began in the first Roaring ’20s of the last century. All this comes from recent research by Arizona State University finance professor

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AMD Stock Downgraded. Goldman Names This Surprise Among AI Chip Picks for 2025.

/ / Technology /

By Elsa Ohlen AMD stock was falling after Goldman Sachs downgraded the chip maker’s shares and named its rivals among the bank’s picks for 2025. The move came following a note from the bank advising investors to tackle 2025 with a “barbell” strategy and own industry-leading artificial intelligence stocks, as well as those exposed to cyclical recovery in traditional chip areas. Goldman analysts led by Toshiya Hari downgraded Advanced Micro Devices to Neutral from Buy Thursday, cutting their price target to $129 from $175. Citing a more conservative PC and traditional server unit outlook — and modest growth for data center graphics processing unit (GPUs) given fierce competition from rivals — Hari also cut the chip maker’s revenue estimates for 2025/26 by double digits. AMD stock fell 2% to $119.40 in premarket trading Friday. Goldman continues to be bullish on Nvidia, saying its GPU is the industry standard. It rates

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Delta Air Lines Expects Premium Travel to Power Earnings

/ / Consumer Discretionary /

By Alison Sider Delta Air Lines expects a strong appetite for high-end travel to fuel profit in 2025, said Chief Executive Ed Bastian. The forecast comes as the airline posted better-than-expected revenue growth in the latest quarter as demand picked up. The airline’s sales of premium products rose 8% while revenue from sales of main cabin tickets rose 2% in the fourth quarter. Bastian said that the clarity of the election outcome helped restore travelers’ confidence and unleashed more corporate spending. The carrier said quarterly corporate sales rose 10% from a year earlier. “Overall consumer demand, particularly premium demand, has also been very, very healthy through the holiday season,” Bastian said in an interview. “The outlook in the first quarter is quite good.” Delta and United Airlines posted the U.S. airline industry’s biggest profits last year with a focus on upscale offerings for more affluent consumers. — Delta on Friday

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Delta Air Lines Crushes Earnings Estimates. The Stock Is Flying.

/ / Consumer Discretionary /

By Callum Keown Delta Air Lines crushed earnings and revenue estimates amid red-hot travel demand in the fourth quarter, sending the stock flying higher. The even better news for investors was that Delta sees strong demand continuing in 2025. The carrier expects first-quarter revenue to grow between 7% and 9% year over year, with earnings per share of between 70 cents and a $1. Both those metrics top Wall Street estimates for a 5% revenue jump and profit of 77 cents. The stock rose 5.6% to $64.85 in premarket trading. Heading into Friday’s session, the shares have gained 20% over the past three months. The one disappointment may be Delta’s full-year earnings guidance of $7.35 a share in 2025, which is a little below the $7.44 expected by analysts. But investors don’t seem perturbed by that for now, instead focusing on a bumper 2024 and a strong start to the

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Delta Sees Clear Runway For Strong 2025 Demand

/ / Consumer Discretionary /

Delta doesn’t see travel demand slowing down in 2025. CEO Ed Bastian notes consumers are increasingly opting for the airline’s premium products and experiences, a phenomenon happening across the industry that more airlines are leaning into and prioritizing. A snapshot of this demand came in November and December when Delta saw four of the top 10 revenue days in its history and double-digit growth in cash bookings driven by both leisure and corporate travelers. President Glen Hauenstein says revenue growth in 4Q came in ahead of its guidance as demand trends accelerated through the quarter and expects adjusted revenue in the March quarter to be up to 9% higher than 2024. Delta climbs 5.3% premarket.

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NVIDIA Leads in AI Innovation Driven by Ecosystem Strengths, Oppenheimer Says

/ / Technology /

Nvidia (NVDA) is “best positioned” in artificial intelligence with a bullish outlook on applications in the enterprise, robotics and automotive sectors as the company’s ecosystem supports a wide range of AI hardware and software needs, Oppenheimer said in a note Thursday. The Blackwell generation of AI accelerators demonstrates significant generational improvements but supply constraints and liquid cooling requirements could hinder short-term adoption for some configurations, the analysts said. Oppenheimer also said the company’s enterprise offerings, such as Nvidia Intelligent Models, Nvidia Model Optimization tools and Nemotron are tailored for business deployment and its partnership with Microsoft (MSFT) on Windows Subsystem for Linux 2 enhances AI optimization on personal computers. Nvidia’s entrenched ecosystem, spanning data centers and AI innovation, is seen as core to the generative AI revolution, according to the note. The firm has an outperform rating on Nvidia’s stock.

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Nvidia Stock Dips. Why Investors Are Fretting About Tighter AI Chip Export Curbs.

/ / Technology /

By George Glover Nvidia could soon face tighter restrictions on sales to China and Russia, according to a report. The chip designer’s shares were falling in late trading on Wednesday. The Big Tech stock slid 1.1% to $138.54 after the closing bell. Markets are closed Thursday for a national day of mourning for former U.S. President Jimmy Carter. Nvidia shares climbed 4.3% over the first five trading days of 2025. According to Dow Jones Market Data, the stock rose 6.9% over the first five days of 2023 and 5.5% over the same period in 2024. It went on to rack up triple-digit gains in both of those years as the AI craze drove up demand for its products and led to its profit surging. The dip late Wednesday came after a report said that the Biden administration plans to impose a final round of chip export restrictions before leaving office.

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Most of the ‘Sweet 16’ Stocks Have Dominated. They Might Do It Again in 2025.

/ / Technology /

By Philip van Doorn This group was first identified by Jefferies in September 2020 and included Nvidia long before the company’s growth explosion began Investors, analysts and the financial media enjoy coming up with new nicknames or acronyms for groups of dominant stocks. But the “Sweet 16” – identified by analysts at Jefferies in September 2020 and unchanged since then – is worth a closer look in light of the group’s contribution to the U.S. stock market’s overall performance over the past five years and how much most members of the group are expected to increase revenue during 2025. One of the most recent names for a group of dominant stocks is “BATMMAAN.” This group is made up of Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) and the “Magnificent Seven”: Apple Inc. (AAPL), Tesla Inc. (TSLA), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Meta Platforms Inc. (META), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) and Nvidia Corp. (NVDA). Read:

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Apple Executive Leaves Indonesia Without Securing Deal to Lift iPhone 16 Sales Ban

/ / Technology /

Apple’s (AAPL) Vice President of Global Affairs Nick Amman has left Indonesia without securing a resolution to the country’s iPhone 16 sales ban, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter. Despite Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s earlier approval of Apple’s $1 billion investment proposal, Minister for Industry Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita reportedly maintained the ban during discussions this week. Kartasasmita reportedly insisted that Apple comply with local manufacturing requirements for smartphones and tablets. Apple’s investment plan included establishing AirTag production facilities on Batam Island and funding technology academies to advance local coding and technical skills. According to the report, while Amman returned to the US, Apple’s negotiation team remained in Jakarta, continuing efforts to address the stalemate.

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Tesla Directors to Pay Back up to $919 Million to Settle Overpayment Claims

/ / Consumer Discretionary /

Tesla (TSLA) directors received court approval for a settlement of up to $919 million to resolve claims they overpaid themselves, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing an attorney and a shareholder. The settlement requires board members, including Chair Robyn Denholm, to return about $277 million in cash and $459 million in stock options, and to relinquish stock options worth $184 million, the report said. Other directors named in the case included James Murdoch and Oracle (ORCL) co-founder Lawrence Ellison. The Delaware judge also granted law firms that brought the case $176 million in fees and costs, the report said. The directors did not admit wrongdoing, Reuters added.

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Nvidia Stock Had a Bright Start to 2025. Why Investors Face a Fresh Fear.

/ / Technology /

By George Glover and Adam Clark Nvidia could soon face tighter restrictions on sales to China, according to a report. The stock slid 1.1% to $138.54 after the closing bell Wednesday. Stock markets were closed Thursday for a national day of mourning for former U.S. President Jimmy Carter. Nvidia shares climbed 4.3% over the first five trading days of 2025. According to Dow Jones Market Data, the stock rose 6.9% over the first five days of 2023 and 5.5% over the same period in 2024. It went on to rack up triple-digit gains in both of those years as the artificial-intelligence craze drove up demand for its products and led to its profit surging. The dip late Wednesday came after a report said the Biden administration plans to impose a final round of chip export restrictions before leaving office. The regulations, which could be issued on Friday, would create three

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