Spotify Technology

Spotify (SPOT) is seen delivering in-line Q1 results on Tuesday, while profitability will be a “key focus” for investors after the recent job cuts and as podcasts are near an inflection point to profitability, Macquarie Equity Research said in a note emailed Friday. Macquarie expects the company to report Q1 revenue of 3.6 billion euros ($3.82 billion) “driven by a 10% price hike in the US (28% of premium sub base) and improving ad market trends that should support growth in ad supported revenues.” “Podcast margins were near breakeven in 4Q23, and [management] commentary signaled that margins are likely to positively inflect and drive profitability through 2024,” said Macquarie analysts Tim Nollen and Ross Compton. “Podcasting has an inherent fixed cost base that implies operating leverage across the content slate. This is in contrast to music where each and every stream warrants a variable cost to the label,” they said. […]

Keybanc analyst Justin Patterson maintained Spotify Technology SA (NYSE:SPOT) with an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $300 to $350. Spotify will report its first-quarter fiscal 2024 results before the market opens on April 23. Patterson refined his estimates and framed vital factors to watch. The analyst now expects 2024 revenue of €15.4 billion and 2025 revenue of €18.0 billion, which reflects slightly higher ARPU growth. His 2024 operating profit decreases by 20% due to social charges, while 2025 increases by 2% due to higher revenue. Finally, Patterson introduced 2026 revenue of €20.6 billion and an operating profit of €2.2 billion, which assumes 14% revenue growth, 29.9% gross margin, and 10.5% operating margin. Due to the higher revenue and profitability forecasts, Patterson raised his price target, implying 3.4x 2025E EV/S and 34.7x 2025E EV/FCF. For reference, the analyst noted that Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) saw its EV/S multiple expand by ~50% over five years

As Spotify Technology SA (NYSE:SPOT) gears up for its first-quarter earnings release on April 23. Wall Street expects Spotify to report 81 cents in EPS and $3.95 billion in revenue. Spotify stock is up 135% over the past year, rising 64% YTD. As the company heads towards its Q1 earnings print, analysts are buzzing with optimism and anticipation.

JP Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth maintains Spotify Technology (NYSE:SPOT) with a Overweight and raises the price target from $280 to $320.

Spotify Technology (SPOT) is poised to report improved profitability and top-line growth in Q1 as the company’s efficiency gains and price increases play out, UBS Securities said in a Thursday note. The investment firm estimated Spotify’s revenue of $3.62 billion in Q1, with a “slight” boost from updated foreign exchange estimates and an increase in average revenue per user. UBS said it also remains upbeat on the company’s margin expansion and projected Q1 gross margins to expand to 26.4%. Spotify also continues to have margin-accretive monetization opportunities, UBS added. Spotify Technology is set to release its Q1 results on April 23. UBS maintained its buy rating on Spotify, with a higher price target of $375 from $274.

BofA Securities analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich raised the price target of Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE:SPOT) to $315 from $265 and reiterated the Buy rating. The analyst is confident that the company’s first quarter FY24 results will be at least in line with guidance, including revenue, premium subscribers, and MAUs. Also, the analyst writes that they are confident about sustainability of share price momentum led by subscriber growth, monetization opportunities, scaling of advertising and continued operating leverage. Given the strong balance sheet and FCF trajectory, the analyst notes ample capacity to start a share repurchase program (likely after the new CFO announcement), which could be a share price driving factor in the second half. The analyst adjusted the first-quarter forecast to reflect higher social costs, lowering operating income to €121 million (from €180 million). The analyst slightly lowered CY24 estimates mainly due to foreign exchange adjustments. Meanwhile, the analyst raised the estimates for CY25 and CY26

Spotify Technology (NYSE:SPOT) Raised to Overweight From Neutral by Atlantic Equities.

Truist: Raised Spotify (NYSE:SPOT) price target from $115 to $132.